Horizon scanning October 2024
Horizon scanning is a document which identifies key areas of risk and harm likely to influence levels and severity of labour exploitation, including forced and compulsory labour, over the coming 6 months.
There are various external factors which may have a potential impact on the GLAA and its operations, these will be organised using the PESTELO[1] method. However, it should be recognised that the PESTELO categories are not always relevant as external factors are everchanging. This document will list economic, social, technological, environmental, and law-related potential external impacts on labour exploitation.
Economic Impact
1. Seasonal Worker Scheme:
- The scheme is designed to allow overseas workers to undertake work in specific sectors provided all eligibility requirements are met:
- A person on the seasonal worker horticulture work route can stay in the UK for a maximum period of six months in any 12-month period.
- A poultry production worker can stay in the UK for a period of time beginning no earlier than 2 October and ending no later than 31 December each year.
- The Home Office announced that it proposed to extend the scheme for a further 5 years under the Conservative Government. The Labour Government have now extended this to 2025.
- Workers must have a sponsor and meet the eligibility requirements.
- Individuals can apply to work in horticulture (e.g., picking fruit and vegetables, or flowers) for up to 6 months.
- Individuals can also apply to work in poultry from 2nd October to 31st December, in the same year(2).
2. Points-Based Immigration System:
- This system is to ensure that anyone coming to the UK for work meets a specific set of requirements, for which they will score points.
- The aim of this system is to help rebuild the UK economy by prioritising skills over nationality.
- Moreover, employers will be prohibited from hiring workers abroad if rules are not followed.
3. War in Ukraine:
- The invasion has resulted in significant price increases for energy and agricultural inputs, affecting farmers and rural businesses nationwide.
- There are ongoing concerns over the availability for agriculture labour.
4. Cost-of-living Crisis:
- The cost-of-living in the UK has increased sharply causing high inflation.
- Many homes have been driven into poverty or precarious living conditions.
Social Impact
1. UK Riots:
- From the 30th of July 2024 to the 5th of August 2024 far-right anti-immigration riots had occurred within the UK.
- These riots spread widely and quickly throughout the UK with accommodation of asylum seekers, cars and buildings being set on fire. As well as shops being looted.
- With these riots, other countries started to issue travel and safety warnings to their citizens about the UK. The United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia being a few.
Technological Impact
1. Artificial Intelligence:
- AI can be defined as the capacity of computers or other machines to exhibit or simulate intelligent behaviour; software used to perform tasks or produce output previously thought to require human intelligence (3).
- AI is rapidly growing, with the ability to replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs.
- Industry leaders are requesting the government prioritise agritech so that the UK can better safeguard against future labour challenges and continue to provide reliable access to food.
2. Electronic Travel Authorisations:
- To strengthen the security of the UK border, the UK launched an ETA scheme (gives a digital permission to travel to the UK).
- This scheme is broadly for visitors who do not need a visa for short stays to the UK, or those who do not already have a UK immigration status prior to travelling.
Environmental Impact
1. Climate Change:
- Climate change has the potential to disrupt food supply systems with risks to public health.
- The UK’s food supply chain appears relatively climate-stable despite a low level of self-sufficiency, primarily in relation to plant-based foods.
- Unless domestic production is increased, the UK’s dependence on imported food is expected to increase.
Law-Related Impact
1. Illegal Migration Act (2023) / Stop the Boats Act (2023):
- This Act states that those who enter the UK via irregular means should not be able to remain in the UK. These individuals will be detained and removed to either their home country or a safe country where any asylum claim will be considered.
- Once removed, they do not have the right to re-enter the UK.
- This Act aims to stop individuals risking their lives whilst coming to the UK to claim asylum, by removing the incentive to make dangerous small boat crossings.
- The Stop the Boats Bill was one of the 5 promises made by the Conservative Party to end illegal entry as a route to asylum in the UK.
- Victims of modern slavery, arriving via small boats, may still be recognised as victims. However, they will not be able to access the NRM system, any associated support, or prevent deportation unless assisting police or prosecutors with criminal proceedings concerning their exploitation.
[1] 1 PESTELO: Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Law-Related, and Organisational.
[2] Proposed changes to the seasonal worker visa route, Burness Paull (17/07/2024)